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ANDRÉ CRAMER

… my view of where technology innovation will lead us

Are you aware of the insane Energy Consumption for Bitcoin Creation that is ahead of us? Soon to hit a hard wall…

Over the last months and especially culminating in the last days, it was hard to avoid the bitcoin topic. Climbing to insane heights, bitcoin has passed even the keenest expectations regarding “value” that many of us had. The price has crossed the $15k mark for the first time this week.

Although I do see a bright future for cryptocurrencies, for me the key value lies in the potential it has in enabling us to create a fundamentally new financial system. From a speculators point of view I do believe that what we currently see is mostly based on the greater fool theory (“I will buy Bitcoin because others will hype it even more”). Continue reading “Are you aware of the insane Energy Consumption for Bitcoin Creation that is ahead of us? Soon to hit a hard wall…”

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“Krack” is exactly that kind of thing bringing us closer to the “Internet of crappy Things” armageddon

My five cents on the „krack“ Wi-Fi / WPA2 security issue that is now slowly but steadily getting out of focus again. This is a classic “Internet of Things”, or “Internet of crappy Things” topic that I have written about before.

It is highly questionable if “krack” will ever really disappear; in a sense that it will be patched and fixed thoroughly so that no one has to worry about it anymore. Yes, a variety of providers of affected software and hardware have announced or even distributed such patches. But when it comes to the long tail of Wi-Fi enabled Internet of Things, smart home or whatever kind of connected devices, it would be naïve not to Continue reading ““Krack” is exactly that kind of thing bringing us closer to the “Internet of crappy Things” armageddon”

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How Mozilla’s Common Voice Project bubbled up my very own 2013 AI- & Voice-Assistance Services Ideation again (André Cramer)

Last week I stepped on a piece of news with yet another story about the voice-driven assistance services which have gained so much traction recently: “Mozilla is crowdsourcing voice recognition to make AI work for the people“. I have been an enthusiastic Alexa user myself right from the start. I believe voice-based assistance services, voice-based human-computer interaction, in general, have a bright future. At least bright in terms of a sharp surge in usage and a myriad of use cases that bring benefits to most consumers and businesses. Continue reading “How Mozilla’s Common Voice Project bubbled up my very own 2013 AI- & Voice-Assistance Services Ideation again (André Cramer)”

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Where accelerating technological Development will lead us in the next 15-20 years (André Cramer)

I would like to share some of my thoughts on key developments that I believe will determine our lives in the upcoming two decades. Almost all of this is fueled by ever more accelerating technological progress and there are a lot of opportunities in it. As well as significant challenges.

Looking back at the perceived principle of the industrial age, where growth occurred or seemed to occur in a linear function, today we know about Moore’s Law. We have been able to observe it for the last 50 years where over time it became clearer that we have a doubling of computing power roughly every 1,5 years.

Now how does that apply in our everyday life? Where do we actually see that technologies get more and more “disruptive”? To show that this is not about buzzwords, here are a couple of examples for “wow” type of developments: Continue reading “Where accelerating technological Development will lead us in the next 15-20 years (André Cramer)”

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AI is absolutely essential for the Messaging Platform Business Model to take over the World (of B2C) (André Cramer)

Over the course of the last weeks and months you couldn’t escape news and stories about messaging platforms going after B2C use cases à la “order me some food”, “book me a hotel room” or “I need a ride downtown in 30 minutes”.

Pioneered and taken to huge success in Asia by platforms like Weixin/WeChatLINE and Kakao, especially Facebook with its two behemoth platforms Messenger and WhatsApp is taking decisive actions to bring businesses and consumers together on their platforms. Kik is even faster, having just launched such a botstore for brands. In their launch line-up are 18 well-known brands such as Sephora, H&M or The Weather Channel. And with these moves, communications platforms will tap into significant revenue streams in the form of rev shares and commissions for being the facilitator between businesses and consumers in everyday Transactions.
Continue reading “AI is absolutely essential for the Messaging Platform Business Model to take over the World (of B2C) (André Cramer)”

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My SXSW 2016 key take-aways (André Cramer)

35,000 visitors from all over the world are yet another milestone in the ongoing rise of SXSW as one of the key events of the tech industry. A must-visit conference that this time even the president attended. In his speech at Austin’s The Long Center for the Performing Arts he made an impassioned and partisan plea to technology professionals and tech-minded citizens to apply their ideas and talents toward solving some of the country’s biggest challenges and philosophical divides.

But there was much more to SXSW 2016. Continue reading “My SXSW 2016 key take-aways (André Cramer)”

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Mobile World Congress 2016: Where are we heading with Smartphones – or where do we need to head? (André Cramer)

It’s Mobile World Congress time again. Not only the world of telcos and phone-related manufacturers meet there, but meanwhile it has become a colorful mix of everything technology related it seems. Still, the smartphones or mobile computing devices are in the center of attention.

The decade of the Smartphone as we know it is ending

Almost 10 years ago the iPhone has entered center stage and in fact did change everything in this industry. The revolutionary first iPhone was of course not the first smartphone in the market; in fact it came years after the term ‘smartphone’ had been coined for the first time. What is remarkable about it was therefore not the invention of a new category of device, but the combination of the right mix of technologies Continue reading “Mobile World Congress 2016: Where are we heading with Smartphones – or where do we need to head? (André Cramer)”

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Virtual Reality will have a massive Impact on us already within the next Decade (Andre Cramer)

When reading about future, and specifically in this context, near-term future predictions, you often get a conservative impression. It seems people mostly see the future like a slightly enhanced version of the present. People tend to think that the big and significant societal transformation either has already taken place or will happen in a more distant future.

In my opinion things are quite a bit different. The world will be changing much faster than the majority of people imagine today. There is a high probability that technology will change the world and our immediate life conditions faster than ever before within the next ten years. There are some technologies on the agenda with the potential to render the world pretty much unrecognizable compared to today.  Continue reading “Virtual Reality will have a massive Impact on us already within the next Decade (Andre Cramer)”

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Teriffic read that helps you understand the turmoil happening to digital media in 2017: How to Survive the Media Apocalypse (Derek Thompson)

If you have wondered what the hell is going on in media, or better put, digital media recently, this is a must-read. After years of growth and surging, fueled by advertising-centric business models and loads of VC money, the digital media landscape sees its most drastic challenge since inception.

Advertising is a dead end. Digital subscription models look really promising, given you have high quality content and an established, ideally pre-digital publishing times brand. Pivoting and pivoting to new types of content formats seems like hopeless actionism. With pivoting to video usually being the end of the death spiral.

My key statement from the article:

“In its inexhaustible capacity for experimentation, digital media has pivoted to programmatic advertising, pivoted to native advertising, pivoted to venture capital, pivoted to Facebook, pivoted to distributed, and pivoted to video. Here is a better experiment: Pivot to readers.”

Enjoy!

Read the entire article here: Why 2017 Feels Like a Media Apocalypse – The Atlantic

Enjoyed this here… and there is an intriguing thought on the future UX for mobile services: The iPhone X is the Beginning of the End for Phones (Owen Williams)

This is a nice read on where we might be heading in the smartphones space, or better put: mobile computing and mobile access to internet services. Most intriguing thought in this for me is if removing a brick/smartphone type of device in this equation might help us liberate our attention from the grip of attention manipulating social networks (btw… great TED talk on this from Tristan Harris).

From the Owen Willams’ post:

Using a Watch to stay connected but not having a phone would do wonders for my concentration, too.

Rather than responding to every single thing as it comes in, having it on my wrist would allow me to know what’s going on but save responding until I’ve got a larger keyboard in front of me to type on.

Such a ridiculous setup could also loosen the grip Instagram, Facebook and others have on our attention span. No more ending up at the bottom of social networks when you planned to just read a message…

Read the whole article here The iPhone X is the Beginning of the End for Phones

Awesome Outlook of what the upcoming iPhone 8 might do to mobile computing & smartphone use cases: iPhone AR Selfie Revolution (Mike Rundle)

This is a must-read speculation article giving an outlook of what some of the rumored cutting-edge new tech ingredients like

  • dedicated infrared light sensors
  • improved front-facing camera with higher fidelity & frame-rate
  • faster and more secure unlocking and payment authorization tech like facial recognition & tracking
  • new image processing functionality able to track and deciper eye movements and alterness

could mean for the future of mobile computing and smartphone based everyday use cases.

“These aren’t just the ingredients for a new way to unlock your phone, these are the foundational elements for some truly futuristic technology that no one else is building.”

My personal highlight:

“A revolution in mobile advertising where apps and advertisers will know if you actually looked at a banner or not. This data would be more valuable than any metric advertisers currently receive, but could have pretty evil consequences…”

Read more at iPhone AR Selfie Revolution – Mike Rundle – Medium

Very good read on what the Digital Disruption of our Social Life is doing to us: Is Social Media The New Tobacco? (John Battelle)

The digital disruption of our everyday life, in particular, our social relationships and interaction among each other is not really a spotlight topic. We talk about the future of jobs, autonomous driving, the Internet of Things and since the 2016 elections we at least talk about the impact of digitalizing and democratizing our media. This article takes a closer look at social media and what it can do and does to our life, especially to that of our kids and teenagers. We need to be more conscious of this, and make sure the social media industry gets regulated where there is a need for regulation. Read for yourself:

“I’ll admit I was a slow-follower when the iPhone launched ten years ago. I was suspicious of Apple’s intent — I was not fan of its closed, vertically integrated model — and the market’s infatuation with apps felt like a fad that would ultimately fade. When I finally did get an iPhone, I felt complicit in the what amounted to internet climate change: slowly but surely, our new addictions were bound to swamp all that we had worked so hard to build on the open web. As Tristan Harris and many others have pointed out, the economic incentives driving our mobile landscape (in short: advertising) are based fundamentally on the science of addiction, and addicted we certainly are…”

Source: Is Social Media The New Tobacco? – NewCo Shift

Tesla Shows How Traditional Business Metrics Are Outdated (Eddie Yoon)

A great article using Tesla as an example of how in the digitalization age traditional business metrics get outdated. How do we compare new concepts, businesses, ecosystems to related traditional counterparts? Here’s some very useful food for thought:

“Elon Musk is having a moment. Tesla just delivered its first Model 3, the affordable model that he envisioned in his “secret” strategy some 11 years ago. He wanted to build a sports car, then build a more affordable car with zero emissions. He’s basically already there. The Model 3 has mostly rave reviews and a multiyear waiting list, which is quite a feat, even for an industry leader like Musk.

And yet confusion still abounds regarding Tesla. There are roughly the same number of buy, hold, and sell ratings on the company, which means Wall Street has no idea what’s going on. Tesla’s recent announcement to raise $1.5 billion in debt was largely met with a yawn by stockholders, as shares moved down a slight 0.5%. Tesla’s ability to surprise has analysts wondering if it is wise to ever bet against Elon Musk…”

Read the article on HBR: Tesla Shows How Traditional Business Metrics Are Outdated

A totally Must-Read on what AI can do right now and what not: The Business of Artificial Intelligence (Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee)

And again… if you read one Artificial Intelligence article this month, make it this one. I highly value Erik Brynjolfsson since I saw his TED talk (here is also a great recap and interview with him in the NPR TED Radio Hour “The Digital Industrial Revolution”). Together with with fellow MIT principal research scientist Andrew McAfee he draws a sharp and easy to grasp picture of what machine learning is really capable of today and what the outlook for the future is. This is really worth your time, providing first class insights into “no bullshit” artificial intelligence state of the nation. Here’s an intro… follow the link at the end of this post for the full article on Harvard Business Review:

“For more than 250 years the fundamental drivers of economic growth have been technological innovations. The most important of these are what economists call general-purpose technologies — a category that includes the steam engine, electricity, and the internal combustion engine. Each one catalyzed waves of complementary innovations and opportunities. The internal combustion engine, for example, gave rise to cars, trucks, airplanes, chain saws, and lawnmowers, along with big-box retailers, shopping centers, cross-docking warehouses, new supply chains, and, when you think about it, suburbs. Companies as diverse as Walmart, UPS, and Uber found ways to leverage the technology to create profitable new business models.

The most important general-purpose technology of our era is artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning (ML) — that is, the machine’s ability to keep improving its performance without humans having to explain exactly how to accomplish all the tasks it’s given. Within just the past few years machine learning has become far more effective and widely available…”

via The Business of Artificial Intelligence (@Harvard Business Review)

Extremely good Read on your Role in the Business Models of Social Networks: You Are the Product (John Lanchester)

“At the end of June, Mark Zuckerberg announced that Facebook had hit a new level: two billion monthly active users. That number, the company’s preferred ‘metric’ when measuring its own size, means two billion different people used Facebook in the preceding month. It is hard to grasp just how extraordinary that is. Bear in mind that thefacebook – its original name – was launched exclusively for Harvard students in 2004. No human enterprise, no new technology or utility or service, has ever been adopted so widely so quickly. The speed of uptake far exceeds that of the internet itself, let alone ancient technologies such as television or cinema or radio.

Also amazing: as Facebook has grown, its users’ reliance on it has also grown. The increase in numbers is not, as one might expect, accompanied by a lower level of engagement. More does not mean worse – or worse, at least, from Facebook’s point of view…”

Source: John Lanchester reviews ‘The Attention Merchants’ by Tim Wu, ‘Chaos Monkeys’ by Antonio García Martínez and ‘Move Fast and Break Things’ by Jonathan Taplin · LRB 17 August 2017

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